London will look 'increasingly' like Toronto as immigration grows: Expert

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Statistics Canada is predicting the influx of new Canadians and their children will drive the country’s population growth during the next two decades and will bring dramatic demographic changes to urban areas, including London and Windsor.

“Canada is changing,” said Don Kerr, a King’s University College professor in social and economic consequences of demographics.

Statistics Canada’s Centre for Demography, using census data from 2016, predicts that by 2041, the country’s population could reach 47.7 million people and more than half – 25 million people, or 52.4 per cent of the population – will be either immigrants or the children of immigrants.

To compare, in 2016, the population of new immigrants and their families was 14.4 million, or 40 per cent of the country’s population.

The cultural mosaic is rapidly changing. The report predicted that by 2041, two of five Canadians will be part of the “racialized” population, or populations considered to be visible minorities.

That would account for 16.4 million to 22.3 million people, or about a 41 per cent of the national population. The population’s proportion of racialized population was 22.2 per cent in 2016.

But some areas could see demographic changes larger than the national average. Most are major cities in Ontario, predominantly Toronto and in the western provinces, but also Windsor, which the report predicts could see its population of visible minorities jump from 20.4 per cent in 2016 to 44.7 per cent in 2041.

London, which had an estimated racialized population proportion of 16.1 per cent in 2016, could see that proportion jump to 32.3 per cent by 2041.

Kerr said the demographic changes reflect a trend identified at the beginning of the century, that of a decreased birth rate.

“As it stands now, Canada is not growing through natural increase,” he said.

Instead, the population is increasing predominantly through immigration that will be fundamental to the growth of urban centres like London.

Many new Londoners are coming from the Arab world, parts of east Asia and Latin America, he said.

“You can expect that London is going to, increasingly, look like Toronto,” he said. “But it’s going to take some time. We’re not even close to where Toronto is, right now, in terms of cultural diversity in our city.”

Without immigration, the labour force would shrink, he said. Canada has been attracting more highly skilled people by increasing immigration quotas to 400,000 newcomers a year since 2021.

Also, Kerr said, there are moves to give people who have Canadian credentials, such as international students, smoother transitions into the Canadian labour market.

But as the population increases and the demographics change, Kerr said cities will have to plan for housing and for well-funded settlement services.

Kerr added the 2041 projections are only predictions and the future will be shaped by economic and governmental factors

Statistics Canada will release more data based on the 2021 census in the coming months. On Oct. 26, it is slated to release what it calls “a comprehensive statistical portrait of the ethnocultural and religious composition” of the Canadian population.

jsims@postmedia.com

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